March Revenue Forecast

The State Economist announced the March Revenue Forecast today.  Comparing it to the December forecast, the best descriptor is “flat” or no significant changes.  Clearly, the economy is in a period that has been described as a “jobless recovery.”  Both the national and state economies are slowly growing, yet Oregon’s unemployment figures remain unacceptably high.  For the current legislature this forecast means we are close to balancing the 2009-11 budget on June 30.  For the 2011-13 budget period there will not be the rapid bounce-back which has occurred after other recessions or downturns.  With cutbacks in federal funding, the budget writers have their work cut out for them.  

Revenue Forecast Fast Facts

• Fourth quarter personal income tax collections were up $42.7 million (3.5 percent) from the December, 2010 forecast.
• Fourth quarter corporate income tax collections were down $11 million (-9.4 percent) from the December, 2010 forecast.
• Oregon personal income was down $0.3 billion (-0.2 percent) from the December, 2010 forecast.
• Oregon employment was up 2,033 jobs (0.1 percent) from the December, 2010 forecast.

2009-11

• General Fund (GF) revenue is up $3.3 million from the December, 2010 forecast.
  • GF revenue is down $1.15 billion (-8.4 percent) from the end of the 2009 session.
• Lottery Fund (LF) revenue is down $4.7 million (-0.4 percent) from the December, 2010 forecast.
  • Combined, GF/LF resources are down $4.7 million from the December, 2010 forecast.Total GF/LF resources are down $1.05 billion (-7.2 percent) from the end of the 2009 session.
• The projected ending balance is down $168.6 million from the end of the 2009 session, but up $3.3 million from the December, 2010 forecast.
• The Rainy Day Fund is projected to receive $65.2 million following the 2009-11 biennium.

There is no personal or corporate kicker projected for 2011.

2011-13

• General Fund revenue is down $81.2 million from the December, 2010 forecast.
• Lottery resources are down $28.2 million from the December, 2010 forecast.
• Combined, GF/LF resources are down $109.3 million from the December, 2010 forecast.
• State economists still project $1.345 billion in new General Fund revenue compared to the 2009-11 biennium.

Constituent Survey Results

In January, I sent a constituent survey to District 20 households.  An amazing number of folks completed the survey and mailed it back or went online and filled it out.  Nothing in the results were startling, but it gave me a good look at constituent opinions regarding the budget. 

What were the results? The survey posed three questions related to our current efforts to fund state programs and promote economic stability.  Across the board, those who responded favored slightly decreasing state budget expenditures.  When asked to prioritize what options would best promote job growth and economic development, “increasing public construction spending” was surveyed to be the lowest priority, while “reducing regulations and red tape” were the highest priority.   When it came to tying the budget cuts to programs and services, the most popular choice was to “reduce the number of state employees” (69.9% of those surveyed). 

Thank you to those who participated in the survey.  Your comments are greatly appreciated and will serve as a compass as I move forward this session.  To review the complete survey results click here.

Ban on Texting While Driving

During the 2009 session the legislature passed a hands-free cell phone law.  In that statute, texting is prohibited but there are a number of exceptions which means that there is no total ban on texting and driving in Oregon.  Initially, I proposed HB 3186 in order to clean up the unclear language around certain professions being able to operate a cell phone while driving.  I will be amending this in committee to prohibit all texting while driving in Oregon.  I hope the bill will be heard before the Judiciary Committee in March.  You can follow the bill online here.

Thank you for keeping in touch.

Vicki