OREGON HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Research Briefing

April 9, 2009

OREGON TAX REVENUE SURGED 135 PERCENT IN 2008 FOURTH QUARTER

Wall Street Journal Analysis Shows Oregon Revenue Surges As Others States’ Plunge

The Wall Street Journal today reported on how states are addressing budget shortfalls this year. An analysis showed that while tax revenues plunged in most states, Oregon’s 2008 fourth-quarter revenue growth surged by 135 percent. In fact, Oregon ranked first in year-to-year tax revenue growth among all 50 states:

State	Percent Change in State Tax Revenue, Fourth Quarter of 2008	Mid-Year 2009 Budget Gap (in millions of dollars)	Mid-Year Gap as Percentage of FY2009 General Fund	Projected FY 2010 Budget Gap (in millions of dollars)	Projected 2010 Gap as Percentage of FY2009 General Fund

Alabama	-6.7	$1,100	12.7	N/A	N/A
Alaska	-25.0	$360	6.8	N/A	N/A
Arizona	-10.8	$1,600	15.9	$3,000	29.8
Arkansas	1.5	N/A	N/A	$146	3.2
California	-11.0	$13,700	13.6	$25,900	25.6
Colorado	-2.0	$604	7.7	$386	4.9
Connecticut	-7.1	$1,700	10.1	$4,000	23.1
Delaware	-5.1	$226	6.2	$557	15.3
District of Columbia	N/A	$393	6.3	$650	10.4
Florida	-11.3	$2,300	9.0	$5,800	22.6
Georgia	-3.3	$2,200	10.3	$3,100	14.5
Hawaii	-6.2	$232	4.0	$682	11.9
Idaho	-9.9	$218	7.4	$411	13.9
Illinois	-5.4	$4,300	15.1	$4,700	16.4
Indiana	0.2	$1,100	8.0	N/A	N/A
Iowa	0.9	$134	2.1	$779	12.2
Kansas	-1.2	$186	2.9	$1,110	16.7
Kentucky	2.9	$456	4.9	N/A	N/A
Louisiana	1.1	$341	3.7	$2,000	21.7
Maine	-1.7	$140	4.6	$177	5.8
Maryland	-2.3	$691	4.6	$1,900	12.5
Massachusetts	-0.7	$2,400	8.4	$3,100	11.0
Michigan	-12.5	$200	0.9	$1,600	6.9
Minnesota	-2.3	$654	3.8	$3,200	18.3
Mississippi	-1.0	$175	3.4	$87	1.7
Missouri	0.3	$342	3.8	N/A	N/A
Montana	5.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nebraska	1.3	N/A	N/A	$152	4.3
Nevada	-6.5	$536	7.3	$1,100	30.0
New Hampshire	-24.0	$50	160.0	N/A	N/A
New Jersey	-9.9	$3,600	11.1	$7,000	21.6
New Mexico	0.6	$454	7.5	N/A	N/A
New York	-0.5	$1,700	3.0	$13,700	24.3
North Carolina	-3.9	$2,000	9.3	$3,300	15.3
North Dakota	13.9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ohio	-5.4	$1,200	4.2	$2,000	7.1
Oklahoma	8.6	N/A	N/A	$600	9.2
Oregon	135.4	$442	6.6	N/A	N/A
Pennsylvania	-3.6	$2,300	8.1	N/A	N/A
Rhode Island	-3.4	$372	11.4	$450	13.7
South Carolina	-7.0	$871	12.7	$725	10.5
South Dakota	4.8	$27	2.2	$32	2.7
Tennessee	-7.2	$884	7.8	$712	6.3
Texas	-0.9	N/A	N/A	$3,500	7.6
Utah	-16.8	$620	10.4	$721	12.1
Vermont	-8.8	$82	6.7	$253	20.8
Virginia	-11.1	$1,100	6.7	$1,800	10.4
Washington	-8.8	$509	3.4	$2,800	18.2
West Virginia	8.3	N/A	N/A	$80	2.1
Wisconsin	-1.3	$594	4.2	$2,600	18.4
Wyoming	46.9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes: "N/A" means data is not available. In some cases all or part of these shortfalls have already been addressed.
Sources: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

From the story: Oregon Democrats Prepare to Raise Income Taxes

“Some lawmakers say they have little choice. ‘With the size of our budget gap, we are looking at a situation of closing down our courts, releasing prisoners and cutting the school year by as much as a month,’ said Rep. Peter Buckley, co-chairman of Oregon's joint Ways and Means Committee.

“His committee is considering an income-tax increase on high-earners, along with major budget cuts, to help close a projected $4.4 billion budget gap over the next two fiscal years. And things could get worse after a revenue forecast due out May 15, he said, because Oregon's unemployment rate has climbed to 10.8% and the state relies on income-tax revenue.

“Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski is likely to support the surcharge, said a spokeswoman , because the state is faced with losing as much as a third of its tax revenue.”

(More States Look to Raise Taxes, Wall Street Journal, Leslie Eaton, 4/9/2009)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123923448796803135.html