OREGON HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Research Briefing

June 17, 2009

HERE’S WHY ONLY 26 PERCENT OF OREGONIANS APPROVE OF 2009 LEGISLATURE’S PERFORMANCE

Democrats Fail to Lead on Economy as Unemployment Surges

 

Riley Poll: Governor, Democratic Legislature Receive Poor Marks from Oregonians…

The Oregon Legislature’s mid-term favorability rating is just 26 percent, with unfavorability ratings at 39 percent and over one-third unsure (35 percent).  Favorability ratings were highest among:

o                               Democrats (31 percent)

o                               Voters under the age of 45 (30 – 36 percent)

o                               New voters (33 percent)

 

 Unfavorable ratings were highest among:

o                               Men (47 percent)

o                               Republicans (59 percent)

o                               Perennial voters: 4/4 elections (49 percent)

 

The rating for Governor Kulongoski is better than the legislature’s, although down significantly from previous polls, and are the lowest of his term in office.

 

Ratings

2009

2007

2005

2003

Favorable

37%

48%

46%

43%

Neutral

20

16

30

33

Unfavorable

43

35

23

23

 

 The governor squeaked out a favorable rating from a majority of just two groups:

o                      Democrats (50 percent)

o                      Those age 18-24 (55 percent)

 

The governor’s unfavorable ratings most often came from: men (47 percent), Republicans (59 percent), and perennial voters: 4/4 elections (49 percent).

(The Riley Report: Oregon Voter Survey, June 2009. Riley Research Associates, Portland OR LINK)

 

As Oregon’s Unemployment Rate Surges.

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982.

 

“The state’s unemployment rate remains more than twice as high as its year-ago level of 5.7

percent in May 2008. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in

May, from 8.9 percent in April.”

(Oregon's Employment Situation: May 2009, Oregon Employment Department)

 

Democrats Fail to Lead on Economy, Pass Job-Killing Tax Increases

“The Democrats must be smart enough to understand that driving business out of Oregon isn't going to help produce jobs here or raise needed state revenues in the long term. Probably every person reading this has a budget he or she must follow. Why can't the Democrats actually represent us and follow their state budget too?

(Guest Opinion: An Attack on Business, Daniel Cook, The Oregonian, 6/16/2009)

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“But if Oregon businesses find the numbers intolerable, as Roxy Ann Lanes owner John Larkin suggested, owners may close up shop, leaving the state with less revenue.

 

“‘The bridge to Vancouver will be loaded with people and companies moving to Washington,’ said Larkin, whose bowling center on South Pacific Highway is celebrating its 50th anniversary this summer.

 

“‘They're piling this all onto small businesses,’ Larkin said. ‘We're in a recession. Our video lottery receipts are down, we've been hit by the no-smoking ordinance, the minimum wage increase has cost us $1,000 per employee for this year, plus there's surcharge for beer and liquor.

 

“‘Now there's the corporation tax," he said. ‘You lump this together and there's going to be devastating consequences for businesses in Oregon. I call it death by a thousand cuts.’”

(Local Businesses Fume Over New Corporate Tax, Greg Stiles, Mail Tribune, 6/16/2009)

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“The income taxes generated by people who work for private businesses provide the financial foundation for all public services in Oregon. Imposing permanent punishment on the “evil” corporate world surely will mean less employment in the future — and less tax money for schools, health care, prisons and other services.”

(Editorial: Legislators Forget Vows of Moderation, Gresham Outlook, 6/13/2009)

 

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“Senate Dems used their majority muscle to raise $733 million in corporate and personal income taxes. Add an additional $400 million in taxes on hospital and health insurance premiums, and it was a billion-dollar day.

 

“Democrats have made their case that the state would suffer disastrous consequences unless some taxes were raised to overcome billions in pending service cuts.

 

“What seems to be lost on the legislative to-do list is how to reinvigorate the economy so businesses can put more Oregonians to work.

 

“Based on what has happened so far, have Oregon lawmakers done enough to help businesses?

(Columnist: State's Democrats Are in an Economic Bind, Bill Church, Statesman Journal, 6/15/2009)

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“We can only hope that the Legislature will come to its economic senses and add an ending date to the tax increases approved this week.

 

“That ‘sunset’ might even lessen the likelihood that voters will demand a referendum on the increases. Such a public election might be held in early 2010, drawing out the uncertainty of Oregon's financial situation.

 

“In the meantime, by insisting on permanent tax hikes, legislative leaders are hurting Oregon's economic recovery.”

(Editorial: Unconscionable to Use the Recession to Pursue Partisan Ideology, Statesman Journal, 6/12/2009)

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“The income tax hike being promoted by the Democrats is not the only increase in the wings. Also, legislators are thinking of raising corporate taxes, including taxes on small and family businesses that happen to be incorporated.

 

“So there’s a chance that some of the households affected by the income tax hike also will be hit by the higher corporate tax.

 

“By hiring two or three people each, these small enterprises could lead Oregon out of the unemployment swamp. Are they going to hire anybody when the state is about to hit them with several thousand dollars more in tax? Would you?”

(Editorial: That’s A Hefty Tax Increase, Albany Democrat-Herald, 6/3/2009)

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“Let Oregon politicians put any kind of spin they want on the latest state unemployment figures. The truth is, we lost out to Michigan — again.

 

“Try as the Oregon Legislature did, Michigan has kept the crown of the nation’s unemployment king.

 

Michigan reported a 12.9 percent unemployment rate in April. We Beaver Staters staggered in behind at No. 2, reporting a flat 12 percent. It gets worse. Michigan pulled away. Its rate grew by 0.3 percentage point from March to April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We almost didn’t grow at all, moving up only 0.1 percentage point.

 

“The Legislature can revel with some pride in the No. 2 slot. It has earned it. It has led us this far. But somewhere along the way, Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s strategy of The Oregon Way has lost its way. There may be hundreds of pages of new green requirements, new taxes and new regulations generated by this Legislature. It has not been enough.

 

“Don’t despair. We can leave Michigan in the dust. We can be christened the king. There’s still time left this legislative session.

 

“Brace yourself for what may come. All the Legislature must do is to keep doing what it has been doing: Keep digging the hole from which no job can return.

 

“Let’s review:

 

• Thank goodness the legislators didn’t tweak the state’s minimum wage law. Oregon’s minimum wage went up by 45 cents per hour on Jan. 1 as the economy plunged in a nosedive. Legislators killed a bill that would have required increases in minimum wage to be suspended if the state unemployment rate was flying high above the national average. That was a close one. Employers may have been able to hire more people.

 

“• There’s still hope for more new taxes. There’s a plan to single out the wealthiest Oregonians for tax increases. If one proposal becomes law, we could tie Hawaii for imposing the highest personal income tax rate. That’s a masterstroke, although you have to wonder if legislators will be satisfied with not being a tax leader. Oh well, maybe that will be enough to get those wealthy folks to leave the state. We don’t need their capital, their knowledge. They can help us get to No. 1 and take their jobs somewhere else.

 

“• The Legislature’s efforts to hold down health care costs have been suitably minimal. That fits right in with making it more expensive to hire anyone. Kulongoski isn’t touching the rich health benefits of full-time state employees. Those workers contribute nothing toward their premiums and have no annual deductible. The plan for statewide health care reform is its own form of legislative genius. The Legislature wants a tax to pay for health care that will raise the cost of health care without any firm commitment to shaving costs. It’s a surefire hit to jobs.

 

“• The Legislature hasn’t been just noodling around on green leadership. There’s a firm commitment to driving up the cost of energy, so Oregonians will have to pay more green for power than people in other states. That’ll make employers considering relocating to Oregon think twice. In a related move, the Legislature has done its best to restrict construction of new destination resorts. Resorts could have meant construction jobs and new homes for people who were likely to throw us off track by having jobs.

 

"Fear not, there’s more than that in store. But sometimes it takes more than swarms of clever schemes to shoo away jobs.”

(Editorial: We Can Be No. 1 in Joblessness, Bend Bulletin, 6/1/2009)